
September 05, 2024 10 min read
If you have noticed coffee costing more lately, you are not imagining it.
Coffee has become more expensive because several costs have increased at the same time. Green coffee itself costs more, harvests in major coffee-producing countries have been affected by weather, global inventories have tightened, and the cost of labor, transportation, roasting, packaging and running a coffee business has also risen.
And there is another important piece that consumers do not always see: even when commodity coffee prices begin to fall, the price of roasted coffee does not immediately follow.
Coffee is an agricultural product with a long journey from the farm to your cup. Roasters often buy coffee months in advance, and the price of a finished bag reflects far more than the daily commodity price.
Coffee is more expensive because the coffee itself costs more, and nearly every step required to turn green coffee into the coffee you brew at home costs more too.
Coffee prices are influenced by what is happening across the entire global coffee supply chain.
Coffee begins as the seed of a fruit grown primarily in tropical regions around the world. Before it reaches your kitchen, it must be grown, harvested, processed, dried, milled, transported, imported, stored, roasted, packaged and delivered. A disruption anywhere along that journey can affect price.
Recent coffee markets have been particularly sensitive to crop conditions in major producing countries, tight supplies of certain coffees, changing weather patterns, labor costs and the continuing expense of transporting coffee around the world.
That is why today's coffee prices cannot be explained by one single event. It is the combination of several pressures.
Before coffee is roasted, it is called green coffee.
Green coffee is the raw agricultural product coffee roasters purchase from producing countries around the world. Its price is influenced by global supply and demand, crop size, quality, origin, weather, currency markets and many other factors.
You may occasionally hear about the "C Market" when coffee prices are discussed. The C Market is a global benchmark used in the trading of Arabica coffee. But there is an important distinction.
The commodity price of coffee is not necessarily the price a specialty coffee roaster pays for high-quality green coffee.
Specialty coffees can command premiums based on quality, origin, processing method, availability and cup characteristics.
For a specialty coffee company, the goal is not simply to find the cheapest available coffee. The goal is to source coffees capable of producing the flavor, body, balance and consistency customers expect.
Learn more about what specialty coffee is and why quality begins long before roasting.
Coffee is unusually sensitive to growing conditions.
Changes in rainfall, temperature, drought, excessive heat, frost and severe weather can affect both the quantity and quality of a coffee harvest.
And because so much of the world's coffee comes from a relatively small number of countries, problems in one major producing region can influence prices around the world.
Brazil is the world's largest coffee producer, while Vietnam is another enormous source of global coffee production. Colombia, Ethiopia, Honduras, Guatemala and many other producing countries also play important roles in global supply.
When crops are smaller than expected, less coffee is available to satisfy worldwide demand and that puts upward pressure on prices.
Coffee farming has always depended on weather. What makes the market difficult is that coffee trees cannot simply produce dramatically more coffee overnight when supply becomes tight.
Growing coffee takes time.
For a deeper look at how growing conditions affect the industry, read Coffee and Climate Change.
Global coffee inventories act somewhat like a cushion.
When harvests are strong, coffee stocks can help the market absorb changes in demand or temporary production problems.
When inventories become unusually low, that cushion becomes smaller.
That means markets can react much more strongly to a disappointing harvest, bad weather forecast or unexpected change in supply.
This does not necessarily mean that your grocery store or local coffee roaster is going to run out of coffee.
A tight coffee market and an actual consumer coffee shortage are two different things.
But lower inventories can make coffee prices more volatile and increase the cost of securing good green coffee.
Coffee production requires an enormous amount of work before a roaster ever sees the beans.
Coffee grows as a fruit commonly called a coffee cherry.
Depending on the farm and region, coffee cherries may be picked by hand, often because ripe and unripe fruit can exist on the same tree at the same time. After harvesting, the fruit must be processed. That may involve removing the fruit, fermenting the coffee, washing it, drying it, sorting it and preparing it for export. Quality coffee requires careful handling throughout this process.
Labor, equipment, fertilizer, farm maintenance, processing, drying, milling and quality control all contribute to the price of green coffee.
To understand everything that happens before roasting, explore the journey of a coffee bean from seed to cup.
Most coffee consumed in the United States is grown thousands of miles away and that means transportation is built into the price.
Green coffee may travel from a farm to a processing mill, from the mill to an exporter, from an exporting country to a U.S. port, and then from the port to a warehouse or coffee roaster.
Along the way there are costs associated with:
Inland transportation
Exporting
Ocean freight
Importing
Warehousing
Insurance
Handling
Domestic freight
Shipping costs can rise or fall, but transportation will always be part of the cost of coffee because coffee simply does not grow commercially across most of the United States.
The price of green coffee is only the beginning.
Once coffee arrives at a roasting company, the roaster takes responsibility for turning that agricultural ingredient into something you actually want to drink every morning.
That requires skilled people, roasting equipment, energy, quality control, packaging, storage and fulfillment.
Coffee also loses weight during roasting.
As green coffee is heated, moisture and other compounds are released. That means a roaster must start with more than one pound of green coffee to produce one pound of finished roasted coffee.
The amount of weight loss varies depending on the coffee and roast profile, but it is an important part of the economics of roasting.
Then there is the work that cannot be measured simply by weight.
A professional coffee roaster develops roast profiles designed to produce a particular flavor in the cup. Coffee is tasted regularly to make sure those profiles continue delivering the intended result.
That quality control is one reason consistency matters so much.
Read Why Coffee Consistency Matters to learn how roasting systems help make sure the coffee you love tastes the way you expect it to taste from one bag to the next.
One of the most confusing things for consumers happens when headlines say coffee commodity prices are falling but the price of a bag of coffee remains high.
Why?
Because coffee roasters do not necessarily buy every pound of coffee at today's market price.
Coffee may be purchased or contracted months ahead of when it is roasted and sold.
A roaster could therefore be using green coffee that was purchased when prices were considerably higher.
And even if the cost of green coffee falls, other expenses may not.
Labor may still cost more.
Packaging may still cost more.
Transportation may still cost more.
Warehousing, insurance, equipment, utilities and operating expenses do not automatically decline because the coffee futures market moved lower.
That is why there is often a delay between changes in global green coffee prices and the prices consumers see in stores or online.
Not all coffee is purchased, roasted or produced to the same standard.
That is one reason specialty coffee often costs more.
Specialty coffee begins with the quality of the green coffee.
Higher-quality coffees may cost more because of where and how they are grown, how carefully they are harvested and processed, their availability, and most importantly, how they taste.
A roaster buying for quality is evaluating far more than price per pound.
They are considering characteristics such as:
Sweetness
Acidity
Body
Balance
Aroma
Flavor
Cleanliness
Consistency
This is why two coffees grown in the same country can have very different prices and very different results in the cup.
Explore the difference between single origin coffee and coffee blends to understand how roasters use different coffees to create specific flavor experiences.
Buying good coffee is only part of the job.
The coffee then has to be roasted correctly.
Professional coffee roasting requires repeatability.
Roasters evaluate coffee, develop roast profiles and continually taste production to make sure the coffee is delivering the intended result.
This process is known as coffee cupping, a systematic method used to evaluate aroma, flavor, acidity, body, sweetness, balance and other characteristics.
For a specialty coffee roaster, quality control is not something that happens only when a problem occurs.
It is part of producing coffee consistently.
If coffee were only about caffeine, almost every coffee would be interchangeable.
It isn't.
People return to a particular coffee because they enjoy the way it tastes.
They may like the chocolate and caramel character of a blend, the brightness of a lighter roast, or the deep body of a darker roast.
Creating those results consistently requires better raw ingredients and disciplined roasting.
That is one reason a thoughtfully sourced and roasted coffee can cost more than mass-produced commodity coffee.
Ground coffee is affected by essentially the same forces as whole bean coffee.
The green coffee still has to be grown, processed, shipped, imported, roasted and packaged before it can be sold.
Grinding is another production step, but it is generally not the primary reason coffee prices are high.
The cost of the coffee itself, roasting, packaging, labor and the broader supply chain have a much greater effect.
Whether you prefer whole bean coffee or ground coffee, freshness and roast quality matter far more than simply choosing the least expensive bag.
No.
A higher price does not automatically guarantee better coffee.
Price can be affected by branding, scarcity, packaging, marketing or other factors that have little to do with how much you will actually enjoy the coffee.
Instead of judging coffee by price alone, look for signs that the roaster is focused on quality.
Consider:
Freshly roasted coffee
A roaster with established experience
Consistent roast profiles
Quality green coffee
Clear information about the coffee
A roast style that matches your taste
Regular quality control
Ultimately, the best coffee is the coffee you genuinely look forward to drinking.
Coffee prices will continue to rise and fall because coffee is an agricultural commodity.
Larger harvests and improved supply can eventually reduce pressure on green coffee prices.
But it is difficult to predict exactly when consumers will see those changes reflected in retail coffee prices.
Coffee purchased today may not be roasted for months. Roasters may still be working through inventory purchased at higher prices, while many of the other costs involved in producing coffee remain elevated.
So even when the commodity market moves lower, retail prices usually do not fall at exactly the same time.
When you buy a bag of roasted coffee, you are not simply buying a pound of agricultural beans.
You are paying for an entire chain of work:
Coffee is grown.
The cherries are harvested.
The coffee is processed and dried.
It is sorted and prepared for export.
It travels from its country of origin to the United States.
The green coffee is stored.
A roaster selects it.
The coffee is roasted.
It is tasted and evaluated.
The roast is adjusted when necessary.
The coffee is packaged.
Then it finally makes its way to you.
At Weaver's Coffee & Tea, we believe the value of coffee ultimately comes down to what is in the cup.
The objective is not simply to buy coffee and roast it.
It is to select good coffee, roast it with purpose and deliver the flavor our customers expect every time they brew it.
That takes experience, discipline and consistency.
Explore Weaver's Coffee and find a roast made for the way you like to drink coffee.
Coffee is expensive because green coffee prices, weather-related supply issues, labor, transportation, roasting, packaging and other operating costs all contribute to the final price of a bag. Tight supplies and low inventories can also make global coffee prices more volatile.
Coffee prices rise when global demand is strong relative to available supply. Smaller harvests, weather problems, low coffee inventories and higher production and transportation costs can all push prices upward.
Coffee beans require years of agricultural investment before they can be harvested. The cherries must then be picked, processed, dried, sorted, exported, shipped, imported and eventually roasted. Higher-quality specialty green coffee can also command significant premiums over commodity coffee.
Ground coffee carries most of the same costs as whole bean coffee. The largest expenses occur before grinding: growing, processing, transporting, importing and roasting the coffee. Grinding adds another production step, but it is generally not the main reason coffee prices have risen.
Specialty coffee typically involves higher-quality green coffee, more selective sourcing, careful processing, skilled roasting and ongoing quality control. Specialty roasters are purchasing coffee for flavor and consistency rather than simply buying the lowest-cost available beans.
Roasters often purchase or contract green coffee months in advance. They may therefore still be roasting coffee purchased when prices were higher. Labor, packaging, transportation, storage and other operating expenses may also remain elevated even after commodity prices decline.
Tight global supplies or low coffee inventories do not necessarily mean consumers will be unable to buy coffee. They mean there is less buffer in the market, which can increase volatility and put upward pressure on prices when harvests or supply are disrupted.
They can. Coffee is an agricultural commodity, so prices change as harvests, supply and demand change. However, retail coffee prices may respond more slowly because roasters buy coffee ahead and have other production costs that do not necessarily fall when commodity prices do.
Not automatically. Price alone does not guarantee quality. Look instead at the quality of the green coffee, freshness, roasting expertise, consistency and whether you genuinely enjoy the flavor.
Coffee is expensive because every stage between the farm and your cup has a cost, and the coffee itself has become more expensive.
But price alone does not create great coffee.
The real value comes from selecting good green coffee, roasting it properly and delivering flavor consistently.
Great coffee once is exciting.
Great coffee every morning is craftsmanship.
Shop Weaver's Coffee and discover coffee roasted for flavor, balance and consistency.
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